One in five firms plan on letting staff go in response to Sunday’s furlough policy change, which will see employers contribute more, a survey has found.

The British Chamber of Commerce said extra training was needed to deal with thousands of redundancies predicted.

From Sunday, government payments reduce to 60% towards salaries, with employers paying 20%.

The government said the approach was “right” and meant “we can focus support elsewhere” as the economy recovers.

According to the most recent figures up to 30 June, about 1.9m workers were on furlough, down from a peak of 5.1m in January.

The government said 11.6 million jobs have been supported since the Job Retention Scheme launched in April 2020.

The scheme is due to close at the end of September.

Thousands of work coaches will be hired under a new government employment programme to help those who have lost their jobs during the pandemic, amid fresh warnings of an unemployment crisis as the furlough scheme ends.

The £238m job entry targeted support (Jets) scheme will help jobseekers who have been out of work for at least three months. It will be available to people receiving the “all work related requirements” universal credit payment, or the new style jobseeker’s allowance.

The Department for Work and Pensions says Jets will “ramp up support” to help people back to employment, with specialist advice on how to move into growing sectors, as well as CV and interview coaching. It is recruiting an additional 13,500 coaches to help deliver the programme.

The move comes as economists forecast a sharp increase in unemployment this winter, with employers such as Rolls-Royce, Marks & Spencer, Debenhams, Boots and John Lewis all announcing layoffs since the pandemic began. More than a third of businesses plan to cut jobs before the end of the year, a survey last week found.

The chancellor, Rishi Sunak, who will give a speech to the Conservative party conference on Monday, said: “Our unprecedented support has protected millions of livelihoods and businesses since the start of the pandemic, but I’ve always been clear that we can’t save every job.

Teachers, councillors, parents and teaching unions now fear that the same incompetence by ministers will spill over and have consequences when schools reopen. Headteachers say that the government has been so distracted by the exam farce that it has left schools in the dark, giving little guidance on reopening plans over recent weeks. Universities are wondering how they will handle the admissions chaos that has resulted in more students reaching their required grades than they have places to offer. 

For many people, including the prime minister, August was a month to try to get away from Covid-19. But September will be when reality strikes, and leadership is needed more than ever. The end of the holidays and the return to “normal” will be anything but. Many hundreds of thousands of working people are expected to be made redundant as the furlough scheme winds down. Any job opportunities there are in a shrinking economy will be fought over by ever larger numbers as graduates join the competition for employment.

The chancellor Rishi Sunak was expected to deliver an autumn budget next month, preparing for potential tax rises and to begin to pay the huge bills already incurred from Covid-19. But such is the anxiety over a second wave that it may be delayed until next year, when the true cost of Covid is known.

As winter approaches, the inadequate test-and-trace system will come under more pressure, exposing it as anything but the “world-beating” system ministers claim it to be.

To add to the uncertainty, Brexit battles with the EU will resume in earnest soon after MPs return to Westminster on 1 September, and fears will grow that the UK will end its transition period on 31 December without a deal, thereby inflicting more harm on the economy at the very point when it will least be able to afford it.

After confirmation that Britain has entered the deepest recession since records began, new analysis seen by the Observer finds that as many as 3 million jobs will still be reliant on the government’s furlough scheme by the time it is closed at the end of October.

While 1 million jobs will be lost permanently as a result of the pandemic’s impact and changing demand, it finds that the remainder could be saved in the long run by adopting a successor to the furlough scheme focused on viable jobs in the hospitality, entertainment and construction sectors.

The new research, drawn up by the Institute for Public Policy Research thinktank, warns that simply withdrawing the furlough scheme with nothing in its place will cause unemployment at levels “not seen since the Great Depression of the 1930s”. It also calls for major increases in universal credit to help those who are out of a job – an idea that is gaining support among Tory MPs.

The public is split on extending the furlough scheme beyond October, but most people want the support extended in some form, according to an Opinium poll for the Observer. It found 28% say the scheme should end as intended, 33% back extending it for sectors most affected by Covid-19, while 18% support extending it for all sectors.

The phasing out of the Covid-19 job retention scheme could be ‘too soon’ for the rural sector as many firms in the countryside are still in ‘survival mode’, it has been warned.

Last week the Chancellor of the Exchequer unveiled details of a gradual winding down of the furlough scheme to its conclusion at the end of October. 

These changes will see the introduction of a flexible furlough and employer contributions to wage costs.

Rishi Sunak also announced the second and final tranche of the Self-Employed Income Support Scheme (SEISS), with a second grant in August worth 70% of average trading profits over a further 3 months and capped at £6,750.

From 1 July, a month earlier than previously announced, businesses will be able to bring back furloughed workers on a part-time basis.

Employers will be able to decide when and what hours their employees work, but they will be responsible for paying their wages for the time they are working.

The survey by Scottish Land and Estates (SLE) of 250 firms found 56% are confident they can reopen all of their business safely, while 36% are confident part of their business can restart while adhering to social distancing measures.

The businesses questioned ranged from the tourism to farming sectors, with little variation in confidence.

However, those involved in the food and drink industry and hospitality were slightly less confident about being able to safely open.

Sarah-Jane Laing, chief executive of SLE, said: “This survey confirms that rural businesses are ready to help restart Scotland’s rural economy safely. “Over 90% of rural businesses who responded to our survey are confident they can maintain social distancing measures if they reopen all or part of their business.

Businesses will have to pay at least a fifth of the wages of furloughed employees from August, it has been reported.

The chancellor, Rishi Sunak, is expected to announce next week that employers will have to begin contributing as the lockdown is eased further, according to the Times.

Employers will be permitted to take furloughed workers back part-time, and all employers using the coronavirus job retention scheme will be required to make the payments, even if they remain closed, according to the paper.

The Treasury said it was “not steering away” from the story, which is understood to have been briefed by officials, and it did not deny its accuracy.

A Treasury source told the Times: “We’ve got two full months of support left and afterwards the government will help to pay people’s wages, but it’s fair to everyone that businesses contribute as they get back to work.”

Ministers should immediately set out plans for a “carefully phased” lifting of the UK’s coronavirus lockdown, a business group has said.

“This is a time to be bold,” said the British Chambers of Commerce, adding high public spending should continue if needed to restart the economy.

Boris Johnson has said he will outline plans relating to schools, commuting and the workplace in the coming week.

But the PM stressed the UK must not “risk a second spike” in infections.

Transport secretary Grant Shapps told the BBC that businesses could be asked to stagger employees working hours, once lockdown eases, to help prevent crowding on public transport.

“There are a series of different things that we can do including staggering work times, and we’re working with businesses and organisations to do that,” he said.

The British Chambers of Commerce (BCC) said business groups and major employers expect to receive draft guidance from the government on Sunday about the safe return to work when the lockdown eases.

In a letter to Mr Johnson, BCC president Baroness Ruby McGregor-Smith said planning and communication of the government’s approach to leaving lockdown “must begin immediately if we are to harness the public health and economic benefits”.