Supplies of festive food staples including pigs in blankets, glazed hams and three-bird roasts could be hit by Brexit-related labour shortages in the meat industry.

Some specialist processing plants that require additional seasonal labour for hand-finished products are already struggling to meet orders, according to the National Pig Association (NPA), which represents processors, abattoirs and farmers.

Most meat processing plants have labour shortages equivalent to up to 15% of their required workforces, as the fall in the value of the pound since the 2016 referendum has combined with uncertainty about residential status, according to the Grocer trade journal. But the labour shortage at seasonal specialists could be as much as 30% because they usually increase their workforce by up to 15% at this time of year, says the British Meat Processors Association.

Ed Barker, senior policy advisor of the NPA, said several processors who relied on regular semi-skilled labourers from Europe had said they were struggling to fulfil orders ahead of Christmas.

Reasons for the discrepancy between the two sets of figures released by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) have been attributed to an increase in the number of women claiming Jobseeker’s Allowance due to changes in the benefits system. Furthermore, unemployment figures have not been as high as expected because according to the Institute for Employment Studies (IES), businesses have retained staff through short-time working, wage cuts and other mechanisms.

Looking at the data more closely – and in a note of caution – David Kern, a chief economist at the British Chambers of Commerce, predicts: “we will see more public sector job cuts in the coming months, and we are expecting unemployment to increase by 150,000 to a peak of 2.6 million over the next 12 to 15 months”.

For me, the jury is still out – what impacts will public sector cuts and the job losses to come have? And will the private sector be able to generate jobs of the size, scale and specification to meet labour demand?