UK economy is ‘weak and stable’ with 50% chance of another recession in five years, says Office for Budget Responsibility
Notwithstanding the dire warnings about the impact of Brexit perhaps there is some cause for mild optimism in this judgement. This story tells us
The UK economy has slowed down in 2017 as higher inflation has hit disposable incomes and many firms have cut back on investment due to Brexit-related uncertainty.
By contrast, growth in the rest of the advanced world has picked up strongly.
In November the OBR dramatically slashed its UK productivity growth forecast over the next five years, prompting deep cuts in forecast for tax revenues too.
Productivity actually bounced back in the most recent figures, expanding by 0.9 per cent in the third quarter of 2017.
But Mr Chote (of the OBR) urged caution about calling an end to the UK’s post-financial crisis productivity malaise.