Eight key points you need to know about the Brexit negotiations
Well here is the commentary on the likely twists and turns of the Brexit negotiations. If you would like a copy of my recent slides on the implications of Brexit for rural communities drop me an email.
It promises to be one of the most complicated negotiations in history. Whitehall civil servants are said to have identified 700 different issues of administrative overlap that need to be untangled before Britain can cut itself loose from the European Union. But cutting through the legal verbiage, it is possible to reduce them to eight main political sticking points:
Timing
As with any good meeting, much of the opening energy is likely to be expended on talks about talks. “The first conversation between Michel [Barnier] and myself will almost certainly be about this subject,” British negotiator David Davis recently told MPs about contact with his EU
The ‘divorce’ bill
Until recently, the size of the European alimony request was the subject of conjecture. The unofficial talk in Brussels was of around €60bn (£52bn) to settle all of Britain’s outstanding financial commitments, a figure that was met with amused derision in London.
Citizenship
The second issue Barnier has insisted must be dealt with before anything else is discussed is the fate of the 4 million EU citizens stranded on either side of the widening Channel.
Britain’s refusal to give any guarantee about the ongoing residency rights of EU citizens living in the UK before receiving similar assurances about the rights of Britons in the EU has been the source of genuine anger in Europe, where it is seen as tantamount to holding foreigners hostage.
Privately, however, many officials regard this as one of the easier issues to resolve.
Borders
In contrast, the fate of border controls, especially the sensitive Northern Ireland land border, is one where recent warm words in the political realm belie a number of tough practical challenges.
Trade
These intertwined questions over customs, immigration and borders are another reason why Brits would like to see the issue of their future relationship dealt with at the same time as the narrower Brexit discussions. But trade is an area many Europeans fear will be a long, painful awakening for an over-optimistic prime minister who still wants to have her cake and eat it.
European court of justice
There are some totemic issues for Britons that could be easier to resolve as long as there is something to show for it at the end of the talks.
One such apparently intractable problem at the moment is the British reluctance to have anything to do with the European court of justice after it leaves. Much of the opposition to the ECJ is born of media disinformation and a lack of understanding about how all international agreements require arbitration arrangements.
Unlike the unpopular, but unrelated, European court of human rights, the ECJ has done little to offend the average Brexit voter.
Transition
One area where some sort of ECJ involvement seems increasingly inevitable is in governing a transition phase between Britain leaving in March 2019 and the introduction of a future free trade deal.
Ratification
Unless talks break down completely and Britain walks away without a single deal, all agreements reached between Barnier and Davis will be subject to ratification by the European and Westminster parliaments.
May has successfully argued that British MPs will have a limited choice when it comes to a vote on her deal: take it, or leave anyway. The glowering presence of the European parliament is already having more of an impact as it insists Barnier takes a hard line.