UK property market could fall 13%, housing experts predict
This is a very succinct exposition of the issues in terms of the housing market. It’s too soon to think about what such a fall in a rural setting might mean for affordable housing, although prospective tenants may find their position financially challenged and unable to take advantage of the knock on into the housing market.
Economists and housing experts are forecasting UK-wide price falls of up to 13%, with “brutal” declines in some areas, as the property market struggles to rebuild during the coronavirus crisis.
The range of forecasts from the major researchers is markedly wider than usual. At one end is the Centre for Economics and Business Research, which predicts that 2020 prices will be down by 13% “as a lack of transactions, high uncertainty and falling incomes take their toll”. But the estate agent Savills said the hit to the market could be more like 5%, and a third of valuation surveyors are predicting that price falls may be limited to 4% or less.
The post-lockdown market will be a buyer’s market, said Jonathan Hopper of Garrington Property Finders, as he forecast falls of 10% nationally and 15% in some areas.
“Areas with a more resilient jobs market should see values hold up better, but elsewhere the price correction could be more brutal,” he said.
The reopening of the housing market will unlock a lot of stalled transactions, said Lucian Cook, Savills’ head of residential research. But he added: “We expect newly agreed deals to take time to rebuild as buyers gradually rebuild confidence. More immediately, things like viewings and mortgage valuations will rely on homeowners being comfortable with measures put in place to protect their safety.” Savills expects short-term price falls of between 5% and 10%.